NEXT POPE INHERITS MORE FRAGMENTED AND DANGEROUS WORLD

by Marco Vicenzino

1 May 2025

Whereas Pope Francis inherited an increasingly polarized world from his predecessor, his successor will confront a far more fragmented, and dangerous, world.  This demands an enhanced level of diplomatic and political savviness if the Catholic Church wants to preserve, promote and prolong its historic soft power, that is, the ability to persuade others globally through attraction and co-option, and not coercion.

As head of state of the Vatican, the world’s smallest nation-state occupying just 0.44 square kilometers of land, the pope also serves as spiritual guide to 1.4 billion Catholics and a leading international figure of moral standing for many worldwide.

Unlike past ages, when popes possessed lands and armies, the Vatican today clearly lacks any hard power within the new era of great power rivalry.  However, it more than compensates for it with soft power.  In essence, the Vatican is a soft-power powerhouse whose global influence was on full display when over 170 world leaders and dignitaries descended upon Rome on April 26th to bid final farewells to Pope Francis.

In an increasingly turbulent world, the historic funeral also served as a de facto geopolitical summit providing valuable opportunities for friends, foes and acquaintances alike  to schmooze, pursue photo-ops or discuss pressing issues of international concern.  In particular, it gave U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian leader Volodomir Zelensky the first chance to meet face-to-face since their White House blowup on February 28.  A few days later, the historic U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal was signed, although it had been weeks in the making.

In his 12 year papacy, Francis pursued a very muscular “global” geopolitical agenda beyond the traditional Euro-Atlantic sphere, where most Catholics reside and much of Catholicism has been centered.  Francis’s supporters would argue he pursued a truly Catholic – meaning “universal” in Greek – foreign policy  by making more than 45 overseas trips.  His attempts at ecumenism and interreligious dialogue often won global plaudits.

While Francis regularly confronted the tides of geopolitics head-on through power of personality, he often courted controversy and diplomatic blowback.  Growing global instability may influence cardinals, of the conclave choosing the next pope starting May 7, to opt for leadership that is more cautious.  Potentially a compromise candidate, as a safe pair of hands, may arise who can manage and calibrate public expectations more effectively with a sense of sober realism about what can be done as opposed to what should be done.

Francis’s prioritizing of refugees and migrants around the world often put him at odds with political officials, including Europe which receives waves from Africa and the Middle East.  His harshest clashes occurred with the Trump administration over deportations and conditions at the U.S.-Mexico border, which underscores the irony of the pope’s final meeting with U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance on Easter Sunday, the day before his passing on April 21.

The papacy’s constant focus on ending war, took Francis to conflict zones including South Sudan and Iraq.  His attempts to broker the Ukraine conflict often backfired.  While Russia generally ignored his outreach, Ukrainian leaders grew frustrated with Francis’s often contradictory statements implying impartiality but eventually welcomed greater papal support.

In the Gaza conflict, Francis’s outright pro-Palestinian support and condemnation of Israel drew plaudits from the Arab world and most international media impacting public opinion.  However, it also complicated Vatican diplomacy and its role as international mediator and brought Vatican-Israel ties to its lowest point in decades.

Africa represents 20 per cent of Catholics worldwide, the fastest growing number of faithful and produces the most priests.  With Catholics also constituting 20 per cent of  the continent’s 280 million people, Africa was at the forefront of the mission of Pope Francis, as he also originated from a developing continent.

Although widely welcomed in Africa, Francis’s social views often clashed with the widespread conservatism among the region’s faithful.  Although the results of Francis’s work in Africa are debatable, few will question his deep concern for the region. His successor will be expected to build and expand upon Francis’s outreach to the continent.

China’s reaction to Francis’s death was largely muted, apart from a basic diplomatic statement expressing condolences on his passing.  The Vatican’s historic rapprochement with China under Francis was an important breaking-of-the-ice after relations were severed in 1951. Since then, the persecuted Christian community largely operated underground with an estimated 40 million today.  Although agreement was reached on the appointment of bishops in 2018, Francis was unable to achieve his objective of restoring full diplomatic relations.  The next Pope will continue to prioritize China, particularly in light of its rising global role and Christianity’s growth in Asia.

Francis was highly popular in his home region of Latin America, particularly with the poor and grassroots communities.  He often traveled there and even visited Colombia to fully support government reconciliation efforts with far-left FARC insurgents.  A referendum was eventually rejected but shoved through Colombia’s legislature as law.  Francis even brokered new U.S.-Cuba ties, which were eventually reversed by Trump, but rarely, if ever, attempted to shape wider democratic changes in Cuba.

Throughout his 12-year papacy, Francis never visited his native Argentina due to deep past divisions, where his detractors labeled him a left-wing “Peronist Pope” and accusations of covering up sex scandals.  These reflected broader criticisms by Francis’s detractors in the Catholic church and beyond.

Pope Francis’s imposing presence internationally will be a difficult act to follow.  His papacy was anything but ordinary and nothing short of historic marked by many firsts.  He was the first non-European pope in 1,300 years.  He became Pontiff when in 2013 Pope Benedict XVI became the first Catholic leader to abdicate since 1415.  He was the first Jesuit pope, a monastic order known for autonomy and often defying established power.  His supporters will remember him as the People’s Pope who lived a modest life, catered to the poor and less fortunate, championed the environment and stood up to opponents inside and outside the Church.

However, his successor will have to reckon with the consequences of Francis’s disorderly administration, over-centralization of power, hollowing out of institutions, and inability to address sex scandals and theological disputes.  For traditional conservatives, Francis went too far.  For liberal modernists, he did not go far enough.

These divisions long preceded Francis and will linger more prominently with his successors.  Even beyond Francis, it is mostly the legacy of John Paul II, the Church’s second longest pontiff from 1978 to 2005, that continues to overshadow the papacy and the broader Church today.